The Cleveland Browns have a quick turnaround in Week 3, trying to put a bad loss on Monday night and a crushing injury to star RB Nick Chubb behind them in time to tackle the Tennessee Titans.
The Browns were scrambling to fill the huge hole in their backfield, losing Chubb for the season after that gruesome knee injury against the Steelers in Week 2 (do yourself a favor and don’t look it up). They quickly signed former RB Kareem Hunt earlier in the week, which gives them an instant option on the ground.
But it’s the Cleveland defense that can save the day against Tennessee. New defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has this stop unit humming through two weeks, with the Browns among the defensive elite in many advanced stats.
The Titans avoided a 0-2 start with an overtime win against the L.A. Chargers last Sunday, but their offense needed help with bad penalties from the Bolts. Tennessee has scored just 39 total points in regulation this season and its relentless rushing attack will test the credibility of this Cleveland defense.
I break down the point spread and Over/Under NFL odds for this Week 3 war and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Titans vs. Browns on September 24.
Titans vs Browns odds
Titans vs Browns predictions
Following the Browns’ Week 2 loss to the Steelers on Monday, the football world was frothing at the mouth with schadenfreude over Deshaun Watson’s piss-poor performance.
Watson doesn’t have many fans to begin with, stemming from his creepy sexual misconduct allegations in Houston. But when you do the math on his insane $230 million contract versus his output in a Cleveland uniform, you can see why people are a little put-off.
Watson has thrown for a grand total of 389 yards through two games, averaging only 5.6 yards per attempt and completing just 55% of those throws. That has the Browns passing offense ranked 31st in EPA per dropback.
He has two touchdowns to two interceptions, three fumbles, and his passer rating is better than just two other QBs so far in 2023. The advanced metrics aren’t kind to Watson either, ranking 27th or worse in just about every analytics angle you could calculate.
A Week 3 run-in with the Tennessee Titans would be welcoming for most QBs, especially after facing divisional defenses in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati in the first two weeks. The Titans were among the worst at defending the pass in 2022 and the early output in 2023 appears on track for more of the same.
However, while Tennessee ranks 25th in EPA allowed per dropback, this secondary showed improvements in the final two frames — and overtime — versus Justin Herbert and the Chargers last Sunday.
Defensive coordinator Shane Bowen uses complex schemes in the secondary to keep rival passers guessing, and that was enough to give a quality QB like Herbert reason to pause, leading to three sacks for Tennessee. Bowen flips between man coverage and zone and uses sleight of hand to show one and play the other.
Watson will be on a short clock to read that morphing coverage as his offensive line has struggled to keep him clean with injuries to the pass protection. He’s been under pressure on more then 26% of his dropbacks and ranks 31st among all QBs when under duress at PFF, with his already-dreadful completion rate sinking to 38%. Watson has been sacked nine times which has led to two fumbles lost and two interceptions in his two outings.
Watson’s passing yards prop for Sunday opened as high as 239.5 yards but has since sunk to 236.5 as of Thursday morning. Even with that adjustment, this Over/Under props is far too positive when measured against a number of respected NFL player projections.
Watson’s forecast ranges from 234.5 yards passing to as low as 195.9, with my number coming out to 216.49 passing yards in Week 3. Given those models and his expected completions, the Under on Watson’s passing yards prop of 236.5 should be priced more in the -240 range rather than the -110 we can find at bet365.
On top of facing an improved Titans secondary, that will likely get safety Amani Hooker back, Cleveland will have its offensive possessions limited by a methodical Tennessee team. The Titans lean into running back Derrick Henry and run the slowest tempo in terms of play calling, resulting in lopsided time of possession — especially with Chubb unable to do the same for the Browns now.
My best bet: Deshaun Watson Under 236.5 passing yards (-110)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
MORE NFL FREE PICKS
Not intended for use in MA.Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Titans vs Browns same-game parlay
Watson Under 236.5 passing yardsTitans Under TT 19.5Tannehill Under 1.5 passing touchdowns
+220 at bet365
Watson’s projections are south of this total and he faces an improved Titans secondary concealing its coverage.
The Titans run the slowest tempo on offense and face a Browns defense going bonkers under new DC Jim Schwartz.
Ryan Tannehill won’t have much time to let passing plays develop and red-zone snaps go to Henry.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Best NFL bonuses
All Users30% profit boost on one anytime TD parlay! Claim Now
All Users50% profit boost on one Sunday NFL bet! Claim Now
All Users25% profit boost on one first TD scorer bet! Claim Now
Ohio Users OnlyAmari Cooper 50+ rec yards, Jerome Ford 25+ rush yards (was -140, NOW +120)! Claim Now
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Titans vs Browns spread and Over/Under analysis
The look-ahead line for this Week 3 contest was set as Cleveland -4.5 in the summer, but after Chubb’s injury and the Browns loss to Pittsburgh on Monday, this spread officially hit the board at Cleveland -3. As of Thursday morning, the line is bouncing between -3 and -3.5 with some play showing up on the Browns.
My NFL power ratings produced a spread of Cleveland -4.38, in line with the original look-ahead line, but with the adjustment for Chubb (who is worth 1 to 1.5 points) this projected spread sits in sync with the actual Week 3 odds. Covers Consensus is showing 61% of picks on the Titans so far.
Tennessee has been able to grab gains on the ground, with the ninth-best EPA per handoff in the NFL but putting up points has been a challenge. The Titans were checked to just 15 points in Week 1 against a very solid New Orleans defense and scored 24 points in regulation against the Chargers, benefitting from drive-extending penalties from Los Angeles in the second half.
The Titans will lean heavily on their rushing attack to not only control time and possession, but also take the heat off Tannehill. He’s been sacked eight times through two games and ranks 28th in QBs under pressure at PFF. To make matters worse, Tennessee will not have starting left guard Peter Skoronski on the field this Sunday (appendectomy).
Not exactly the situation you want when facing a defense like Cleveland. The pass rush has been the brightest spot for this blinding stop unit from Schwartz, cooking up a pressure rate of almost 32% per dropback. While the Browns only have four sacks so far, they’ve scored 14 QB hits and have limited opposing passers to a league-low 46.77% completion clip.
As good as the Cleveland defense has been, it was unable to make up for the lack of pop from the offensive side of the ball in Week 2. The Browns rank 29th in EPA per play and all fingers are pointing at quarterback Deshaun Watson. He’s completed only 55% of his passes and has a measly average of 5.6 yards per attempt through two weeks.
The Titans are among the softest pass defenses in the land, but without the threat of Chubb on the ground, Tennessee can focus on tormenting Watson and this stumbling passing game. Tennessee defensive coordinator Shane Bowen made solid adjustments in the second half and overtime against the Chargers last Sunday, and the Titans pass rush found time for three sacks.
This total opened at 42 points and has since sunk to as low as 39 points at some sportsbooks – the second-lowest Over/Under on the Week 3 board. According to Covers Consensus, 52% of picks are taking the Over.
Tennessee’s ground-heavy playbook is rushing on almost 46% of snaps and deploying the slowest tempo in the NFL, with a play call every 31.3 seconds. That means shorter gains and the clock continuing to run, which is always a recipe for Unders. This will also be the Titans’ first game on grass after playing on turf at New Orleans and on its fancy new Matrix Helix Turf system at home last week.
Kevin Stefanski’s offense in Cleveland was averaging a mere five yards per play with Chubb in the backfield, averaging 6.1 yards per carry. That output could slim with Hunt and fellow RB Jerome Ford splitting carries and more weight being put on Watson’s wonky arm.
